The Human Population Could Peak at 9.7 Billion in 2064 - Seeker's Thoughts

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The Human Population Could Peak at 9.7 Billion in 2064


According to the Latest lancet report worldwide, the population could peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and fall to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.

Since 2019, United Nations demographers have been anticipating that the world’s population. On a conclusive note they found that the world’s population may stop growing by 2100 as fertility rates decline, projecting a peak of 10.9 billion people by century’s end, compared with roughly 7.8 billion now.


However, The Lancet, medical journal, has challenged that forecast, with major economic and political implications. The study declared that the global population could be a peak of 9.7 billion by 2064/ nearly about four decades earlier and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100.


The study says the elderly will make up a bigger part of the total than foreseen in the U.N forecast, and the population of at least 23 countries, including Thailand, Italy, and Spain, could shrink by more than 50%.


Moreover, the study also projected significant declines in the working-age populations of China and India, the two most populous countries, portending a weakening in their global economic power.

It also carries significant consequences for the United States, whose economy is expected to trail China’s in size by 2035. As china’s working-age population declines in the second half of the century. The USA could reclaim the top spot economically by 2098 if immigration continues to relish the American workforce.

A glance on Indian on china’s population data

Lancet analysis states that the Indian population is forecasted to peak in 2048 at around 1.6 billion, up from 1.38 billion in 2017, which will be followed by a 32% decline to around 1.09 billion in 2100.

Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s school of medicine. Used different methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, and migration, by using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017, estimate that by 2100, a total of 183 out of 195 countries will have total fertility rates (which represent the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime) below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.


Study states, India in 2100 will be the world’s most populous country. It has predicted dramatic declines in working-age populations in countries such as India and China, which will likely hamper economic growth and lead to shifts in global powers.


The report forecasted the number of working-age adults aged 20-64 in India is projected to fall from around 762 million in 2017 to around 578 million in 2100. But, India has been forecasted to have the largest working-age population in the world by 2100.

The report estimated that India is also expected to surpass China’s workforce population in the mid-2020s, where the working-age population is estimated to decline from 950 million in 2017 to 357 million in 2100.


India from 2017 to 2100, is projected to rise up the ranking of countries with the highest and largest total GDP globally from the 7th to 3rd. on the other hand, the country’s total fertility rate declined to below 2.1 in 2019, and is projected to have continued steep fertility decline until about 2040, reaching total fertility of 1.29 in 2100.




India will see the second-largest net immigration in 2100, with an estimated half a million more people immigrating to India in 2100 than emigrating out.






What are the reasons for population fluctuations around the world?








1.     Growing Technology





Growing advances in technology with each coming year has affected humanity in many ways. One of these has been the ability to save lives and created better medical treatment for all. A direct result of this has been the increased lifespan and the growth of the population.


In the past fifty years, the growth of the population has boomed and has turned into overpopulation.



In the history of our species, the birth and death rates have always been able to balance each and maintain a population growth rate that is sustainable.


Since the time of the bubonic plague in the 1400s, the growth of the population has been on a constant increase. Between the time of the plague and the 21st century, there was been hundreds and thousands of wars, natural calamities, and man-made hazards. However, none of these have made a dent on the population. 


Developing nations face the problem of overpopulation more than developed countries, but it affects overpopulation, we should first understand the negative consequences of ‘overpopulation’.

2.     Poor contraceptive use

Though the availability of contraceptives is widespread in developed countries, poor planning on both partner's parts can lead to unexpected pregnancies.
Statistics have shown in Britain 76% of women aged between 16 and 49 used at least one form of contraceptive, leaving a quarter open to unexpected pregnancies.
According to the WHO’s study, this issue is exacerbated in underdeveloped areas, usage of contraceptive drops to 43% in countries that are blighted by issues like poverty, which leads to higher birth rates.


3.     Fertility treatment 

Though it plays a minor role in comparison to the other causes of overpopulation, improved fertility treatment have made it possible for more people to have children.

The number of women using various fertility treatments has been on the rise since their inception. Now, most have the option of conceiving children, even if they may not have been to do so without such treatments.




The economic impact of population

The population may be considered a positive hindrance to the economic development of a country. In a capitally poor and technologically backward country, the growth of the population reduces output by lowering the per capita availability of the capital. To be precise, too much population is not good for economic development. In underdeveloped countries, the composition of the population is determined to increase capital formation.

Due to a higher birth rate and low expectation of life in these countries, the percentage of dependents is very high. 







Nearly 40 to 50% of the population is in the non-productive age group which simply consumes and does not produce anything.

In economically backward countries, investment requirements are beyond its investing.

Depletion of natural resources


The effects of overpopulation are severe. The first of these is the depletion of resources. The earth can only produce a limited amount of water and food which is falling short of the current needs.
Most of the environmental damage being seen in the last fifty-odd years is because of the growing number of people on the planet.
They are cutting down forests, hunting wildlife in a reckless manner, causing pollution, and creating a host of problems.
Those engaged in talking about overpopulation have noticed that acts of violence and aggression outside of a war zone have increased tremendously while competing for resources.



Degradation of Environment 

With the overuse of coal, oil, and natural gas, it has started producing some serious effects on our environment. The rise in the number of vehicles and industries have badly affected the quality of air.  There are indirect links available between Environment and the rising human population.

The rise in the amount of CO2 emissions leads to global warming. Melting of polar ice caps, changing climate patterns, rise in sea level are few of the consequences that we might we have to face due to environment pollution.



Increased intensive farming

As the population has grown over the years, farming practices have evolved to produce enough food to feed larger numbers of people. However, intensive farming methods also cause damage to local ecosystems and the land, which may pose problems in the future.
Furthermore, intensive farming is also considered a major contributor to climate change due to the machinery required.
This effect will likely intensify if the population continues to grow at its current rate.


Conflicts and wars

Overpopulation in developing countries puts a major strain on the resources it should be utilizing for development. Conflicts over trade and tariffs are becoming a source of tension between countries, which could result in wars. 

Starvation is a huge issue facing the world and the mortality rate for children is being fuelled by it.

Poverty is the biggest hallmark we see when talking about overpopulation. All of this will only become worse if solutions are not sought out for the factors affecting our population. We can no longer prevent it, but there are ways to control it.


The high cost of living


As the difference between demand and supply continues to expand due to overpopulation, it raises the prices of various commodities including food, shelter, and healthcare. This means that people have to pay more to survive and feed their families




Why people of developing countries face more environmental problems due to overpopulation?

People in developing countries tend to feel the impacts of environmental problems more acutely, especially if they live in coastal areas directly affected by sea-level rise and the extreme weather events that accompany climate change.

The most vulnerable populations also experience decreased access to clean water, increased exposure to air population and disease – which may result from decreased biodiversity- and may feel the impact more immediately as local resources including plants animals deplete.


While the interconnected problems of population growth and environmental issue seem overwhelming. It is important to remember that humans can make changes that positively impact the planet.


One good starting point is understanding and applying the concept of sustainability, which is the opposite of resource depletion. 


Sustainability describes a model of resource usage in which the current generation uses only the resources the Earth provides indefinitely – like solar or wind power instead of burning fossil fuels, to ensure that future generations inherit resources.
  
Today humanity uses the equivalent of 1.5 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste. This means it now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate what we use in a year. - Global Footprint Network


Let’s throw some light in detail about world population day 2019


Unlike every other year, the UN council has not decided on a specific theme for the current year, but will instead call for global on the consequences of increasing population and how it affects the overall development plans and programs.

One of the greatest consequences of a growing population, which is perhaps a great threat to our livelihood as well as the quick depletion of natural resources.

The aim of this day to aware people and make realize their responsibility they have towards each other.

Each country celebrates world population day in a different way. A majority of the United Nations Fund for Population Activity (UNFPA) offices celebrate the world population day by making posters and conducting essay and spots concerts to create awareness regarding the cause.



Some facts and figures of 2019s world population report
Most populous countries in the world

China remains the most populous country in the world with 1.4 billion inhabitants (18.4 percent of the world population) followed by India with 1.3 billion inhabitants (17.7 percent of the world population).  Together these two countries account for 2.79 billion people or 36.15 percent of the world population.

The United States (329 Million) is the third most populous country followed by Indonesia (269 million), Brazil (212 million), Pakistan (204 million), Nigeria (200 million), Bangladesh (168 million), Russia (143 million) and Mexico (132 million).



World population by religion

As per a demographic analysis by Pew research center, nearly one in every three people in the world is a Christian. Around 31 percent of the world's population follows Christianity.

Nearly one in every four people in the world is a Muslim accounting for 24 percent of the world's population. Followed by Hinduism (15 percent), Buddhism (6.9 percent), Folk religion (5.7 percent), and other religions (0.8 percent) while only 0.2 percent of the world's population follows Judaism. As per the same report, 16 percent population of the world is not affiliated to any religion.

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