Terrorism intensity has declined worlwide - Seeker's Thoughts

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Terrorism intensity has declined worlwide

Death from terrorism fell for the fourth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The number of deaths has now decreased by 52% since 2014, falling from 33,555 to 15,952.

According to the Global Terrorism Index, the total number of deaths fell by over 15% in 2018, with the largest falls occurring in Iraq and Somalia on the back of the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq, and US-led airstrikes on Al-Shabaab. The fall in deaths was also reflected in country scores, with 98 countries improving compared to 40 that deteriorated.

Moreover, the intensity if terrorism has declined, finding shows that terrorism is still widespread and increasing.

The yearly Global Terrorism Index, developed by the Institute for Economics & Peace, is based on the Global Terrorism Database by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) as well as other sources and provides the most comprehensive resource on global terrorist trends.

How terrorism emerge around the world?
Terrorist attacks like a suicide bomb blast, attack from bullets or keeping hostages are the most common ways for a terrorist to create chaos among innocent people. The one thing which is common across the world of terrorism is the large involvement of youth.

It can be seen that a large number of young people especially the age group of 20 to 35 are indulged in recent deadly terrorist attacks around the world. This significant change is because it is very easy to change the bend of mind of these young people. The terror gurus take advantage of these young men and with their evil preaching's they brainwash then to force them into the deadly world of terror.

What are the reasons behind youth in terrorist activities?
The main reason why the youth involves in terror is because of unemployment and their poor survival across the childhood days. It is being revealed by many of the terrorists who were caught across the world that they were born and brought up in poor conditions and due to which they could not get proper education, food, and livelihood. Hence the Terror agents took their advantage brought them in terror activities. They promised them to pay a hefty amount to their families in return.

Communalism and extreme thoughts are the other major factor which works as fuel in the fire. Youth are taught by the extremist’s religious preachers. They have been shown false videos and texts by evil preachers which developed more hatred in them for other groups of religion or other community groups. Moreover, they are being asked to kill innocent people in order to keep their faith alive and all this fight is on the name of religion.

Where are they come from?
Most of the terrorists come from low income, poor and orthodox countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Libya, etc. The geographical conditions are very familiar with organizing these terror camps and the favor of the government and intelligence agencies plays a crucial role. Hilly areas and snow-covered are the ideal places where the training is being given in order to make them fight in every condition and these countries have a vast border with the neighboring countries like India, China where they want to spread the terror.

A little about the index
The Global Terrorism Index ranks 163 countries according to the impact of terrorism, based on factors such as the number of attacks, fatalities, injuries and the extent of property damage. The definition of what is included covers intentional acts of violence by non-state actors but not acts of state-sponsored violence, so it offers only a limited insight into the overall level of violence or political freedom in a country. Indeed, many of the countries at the safer end of the list are among the world's most repressive, including Belarus, North Korea, and Eritrea.
Overall, 98 countries suffered less from terrorism last year, while 40 saw things get worse.

Last year, 103 countries recorded at least one terrorist incident and 71 suffered at least one fatality as a consequence. “The breadth of terrorism is still near record levels,

Afghanistan had the largest increase in deaths from terrorism, up by 59% from the prior year, and is now at the bottom of the index.

Other than Afghanistan only three other countries – Nigeria, Mali, and Mozambique – recorded a substantial increase in deaths from terrorism in 2018. Each of these countries recorded more than 200 additional deaths.

South Asia has had the highest impact from terrorism since 2002 while Central America and the Caribbean region have had the lowest impact.

Seven out of nine world regions in 2018 saw the reduced impact of terrorism in line with the global trend, which recorded a significant drop in both deaths from terrorism and terrorist attacks.

The largest improvement occurred in the Middle East and North Africa, while South America had the largest deterioration, followed by Central America and the Caribbean.

There has also been an increase in female participation in terrorism, although it still accounts for a small percentage of all attacks.

The trend has intensified over the past five years, with the number of female suicide attacks increasing by 45 percent between 2013 and 2018. In contrast, male suicide attacks fell by 47 percent over the same period. Most of this increase can be attributed to Boko Haram, accounting for nearly 80 percent of all female suicide attacks in the last five years.

For North America, Western Europe, and Oceania, the threat of far-right political terrorism has been rising over the past five years, with 19 countries affected by attacks in this period. In these regions, far-right attacks increased by 320 percent between 2014 and 2018. This trend has continued into 2019, with 77 deaths attributed to far-right terrorism from the start of the year until the end of September. Unlike Islamist terrorism, none of the perpetrators in 2018 claimed to be a member of an organized terrorist group, making it difficult for security organizations to prevent such attacks.  

In Europe, the number of deaths from terrorism fell for the second successive year, from over two hundred in 2017 to 62 in 2018. Only two attacks killed five or more people.

Conflict remains the primary driver of terrorism, according to the researchers, with over 95% of deaths from terrorism occurring in countries involved in a civil war or cross-border conflict or battling domestic militants.

In 2018, over 95 percent of deaths from terrorism were occurring in countries that were already in conflict. When combined with countries with high levels of political terror the number jumps to over 99 percent. Of the 10 countries most impacted by terrorism*, all were involved in at least one violent conflict last year."

Economic Impact globally

The economic impact of terrorism model includes costs from four categories: deaths, injuries, property destruction, and GDP losses from terrorism.

What does it tell us? Deaths from terrorism are the largest category in the model, accounting for 58% of the global economic impact of terrorism — equivalent to $19.3 billion in 2018.

By the numbers
GDP losses are the second largest category contributing to 39% of the total, or $12.9 billion.

Property destruction is estimated at 2% of the global economic impact of terrorism, with injuries at just 1% of the total.
 In 2018, all four categories in the economic impact of the terrorism model decreased from 2017 levels — that's down by $20.6 billion.

 countries most impacted by terrorism
1) Afghanistan 2) Iraq 3) Nigeria 4) Syria 5) Pakistan 6) Somalia 7) India 8) Yemen 9) Philippines 10) the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo
A year ago, DR Congo was ranked 11th in the world in terms of the impact of terrorism, but this year it is included among the 10 worst countries (Egypt has dropped out of the list of ten), as a result of the activities of groups such as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and Mayi Mayi militias.

Last year there were 135 terrorist incidents in the central African country, leading to 410 deaths and 145 injuries. The assaults have tended to be concentrated in the east of the country, near the borders with Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. The most frequent forms of terrorism in 2018 were hostage-taking and armed assault, which between them comprised 84% of the attacks.

Yemen has been ravaged by war and instability for many years, but the death toll from terrorism has sharply declined since peaking in 2015. Last year there were 301 deaths and 325 injuries from 227 terrorist incidents. In 2015, in contrast, there were 1,500 terrorist-related deaths.

Houthi rebels – who are involved in bitter fights against the government of President Hadi and his patron Saudi Arabia – accounted for just over half of the terrorist deaths last year. Other active groups included Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Adan-Abyan Province of Islamic State. While the threat from terrorism appears to be declining, the country remains trapped in a destructive civil war which, despite some recent peace initiatives, continues to cause suffering on a massive scale.

The Philippines
Terrorism in the Philippines is dominated by the communist insurgency movement the New People’s Army (NPA), which was responsible for 36% of the 297 deaths last year and 39% of the 424 incidents. Other active groups include the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement, a separatist group in the south of the country, as well as militants affiliated to the Islamic State which carried out their first suicide bombing in the country last year, killing 12 people.
While last year’s death toll marked a 13% improvement on the previous year, it was still the second-worst annual total on record for the country. Since 2001, some 3,166 people have lost their lives in terrorist attacks in the Philippines.

India faces a more diverse threat from terrorism than most countries on this list, with Islamist, communist and separatist groups all launching attacks in 2018. The active groups include the Communist Party of India Maoist, Hizbul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Sikh separatists in Punjab and another secessionist movement in Assam.

Overall, there were 748 incidents between them that caused 350 deaths and 540 injuries. Jammu and Kashmir suffered more than other regions in 2018, with 321 attacks, resulting in 123 deaths.
The worst single incident last year came in November in Sakler, Chhattisgarh when an unidentified group of assailants opens fired on District Reserve Guards, killing at least two of them; at least nine of the attackers were also killed in the incident.

There was a large fall in the number of terrorist-related deaths in Somalia last year, owing largely to a 57 percent reduction in fatalities caused by Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab. As a result, deaths from terrorism in Somalia were at their lowest level since 2013. Even so, 646 people were killed and 638 injured in the 286 incidents over the course of the year.

The vast majority (91%) of those deaths were caused by Al-Shabaab, which has been heavily targeted by U.S. forces and is also the focus of an African Union-led peacekeeping mission. Another group, Jabha East Africa, accounted for a relatively small number of deaths.
The worst incident of the year was a double suicide mission targeting the Sahafi hotel in Mogadishu which killed 65 people and injured 106 others.

While war is still raging across many parts of the country, the fighting has become less intense in many areas, contributing to a 40% decline in terrorism-related deaths last year to 662. Alongside that, there were 725 injuries from the 131 terrorist incidents. Aleppo was the worth affected part of the country, followed by Idlib, the capital Damascus and Deir es-Zour in the east.

The fall in deaths is in part a result of the largely successful campaign against Islamic State – last year the group was responsible for the lowest number of deaths since 2013. However, the Islamic State remains the most lethal group in the country. It, along with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, was still responsible for 77% of terrorist deaths last year.

Terrorism activity in Pakistan has been falling for the past five years, but it still remains one of the five deadliest countries in the world for violence by non-state groups. Last year 537 people were killed and 1,016 injured in 366 incidents. Those figures represent an improvement of 81% in terms of the number of deaths and a fall of 77% in terms of incidents since 2013 when terrorism was at its worst in the country.

The deadliest group is the Khorasan Chapter of Islamic State, which accounted for 251 of the deaths last year. It was followed by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan which killed 151 people. Another group that had been very active in the past, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, was relatively quiet last year, carrying out just two attacks and killing six people.

Nigeria accounted for 13% of all terrorism-related deaths globally in 2018, with a 33% rise in the number of fatalities compared to the year before – that translates into 2,040 deaths and 772 injuries from the 562 terrorist incidents. Despite that rise, the total number of deaths was still 72% below the peak in 2014.


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